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Archive for April, 2009


The Black Swan + Cleverness is overrated


Montag, April 20, 2009

Just finished reading Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s book the Black Swan. The book is great. Well actually the first part is great and the end is great, but the middle is kind of boring. If you want to know what the book is about watch this video and read these 10 principles of a black swan.

Anyway today if stumbled across this post from David Hepworth who refers to the 10 principles and puts the Black Swan phenomenon into a slightly different context:

For instance, I find it hard to believe that there is anyone at the top of any of our big media organisations who really understands how web advertising and marketing really works. I suspect they’re glad that nobody ever asks them.

Well I’m quit sure he is right with this one.

If Taleb is looking for an eleventh principle, I’d suggest a rather broader point. I use it to bore and occasionally encourage my children. It’s this. “Cleverness is overrated.”

:-)